We used onchain data to estimate Circle's Q2 earnings last week within 0.05% accuracy. Before Circle reported last week, our research team built an independent estimate of their reserve income using three public inputs: adjusted USDC circulating supply, Coinbase wallet labels, and published rate schedules. Our estimate: $667.4M. Circle reported $667.7M. (off by $330K on a $668M line item) USDC reserve income is a function of supply, distribution, and rates. All visible onchain if you have clean wallet attribution. A similar approach works for any crypto company with meaningful onchain activity. Stablecoin issuers, lending protocols, exchanges with onchain treasuries. If the financial inputs live on a blockchain, you can reconstruct the quarter before it's reported. If you're evaluating onchain data as an alternative data source, read about how we did it in our weekly Allium Research newsletter: