Jon Ma

观点

Jon Ma

Jon Ma

08-10 18:07

Thesis: Robinhood will a $300B company in 2030 (~3.5x from here) as #1 global trading platform, primarily through BUYING @tradingview which has 100M+ traders and integrating Robinhood Wallet. Context: $HOOD has 28.4M funded accounts (vs 26.5M a year ago, ~8% YoY growth) and BEAR case is Robinhood has saturated the US market for retail investors. Robinhood can only upsell so many products to US consumers and has $5B in cash for M&A. Argument: To become a $1T company, Robinhood NEEDs to grow users. Growth drivers for $HOOD : 1️⃣ Trump accounts: kids as long-term top-of-funnel, get kids on, bring parents over from IKBR / Schwab /Fidelity. Add 5M funded accounts by 2030) 2️⃣ Robinhood Chain/Wallet: frame as “the Robinhood app for the entire world” and already 2M monthly transacting user. Add 10M funded accounts by 2030 3️⃣ International expansion: Robinhood expanding to Singapore, acquired WonderFi in Canada, etc, Add another 5M funded accounts. ⭐️ Key acquisition idea: Robinhood should buy TradingView for 3-5B in cash. TradingView has 100M monthly active traders globally (80% are outside U.S, so call it 80M MAUs)) last raised at $3B from Tiger Global. Analogous to Binance buying CoinMarketCap as top-of-funnel. Robinhood can merge TradingView with Robinhood Legend and route traders to wallet, stocks, crypto. This can add 50M of funded accounts. Model Assumptions: 100M funded accounts and ARPU ~$200, implies $20B revenue, $10B earnings and at 30x earnings that's $300B marketcap in 2030. Full Model here: https://www.artemis.ai/company/HOOD?tab=model Full Pitch here: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Fq_rBWmsBs9pG8F82gTL9tCqux2fUmllnytBFDN433M/edit?slide=id.g3f601113bd4_0_137#slide=id.g3f601113bd4_0_137